Thunderstorms just north of Ann Arbor; A2 may be affected this evening (June 24)

KDTX Composite Reflectivity June 24, 2013 7:44pm
KDTX Composite Reflectivity June 24, 2013 7:44pm. Bright yellow box in northern Oakland County is a severe thunderstorm warning; plus signs indicate lightning.

For now, at least, these summer thunderstorms are just north of downtown Ann Arbor, extending north past Flint and west past Lansing. These storms developed relatively quickly late this afternoon, and we can expect development to continue into the evening as the air cools.

A severe thunderstorm watch, effective until midnight EDT, extends into the western third of Washtenaw County; at closest, its border is 10 miles from A2, so I would expect to see some thunderstorms here at some point tonight, some of which may be severe. (Within the severe thunderstorm watch area, which includes the northern half of Indiana and the southwest/south-central portion of Michigan, primary risks are significant damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes.)

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358

Looking forward, we can expect thunderstorms across the area Tuesday morning. (The SPC puts us in the 40% probability area for thunderstorms from midnight through Tuesday morning.) Some of these storms will be severe, with the primary threats being damaging wind, large hail, and brief heavy downpours.

Thunderstorm outlook June 25 midnight-8am
Thunderstorm outlook June 25 midnight-8am

Thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening (June 24); isolated storms may be strong

As on any hot, humid summer day, we can expect thunderstorms to develop across SE Michigan and northern Ohio today. It is difficult to predict accurately & specifically whether any will hit an area as small as Ann Arbor.

Severe weather is not generally expected, but isolated thunderstorms could be strong, with 50-60 mph wind gusts and briefly heavy rainfall.

The relevant part of today’s severe weather outlook from NWS Detroit:

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO
50 KNOTS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM MOTION WILL BE WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.

As of 1:20 pm, a small cell has popped up just north of Ann Arbor; this cell is tracking east-northeast and will continue to develop while moving away from the city. We can expect similar pop-up thunderstorms across the area this afternoon.

Ann Arbor crop from KDTX Reflectivity Tilt 2, 1:20pm June 24 2013
Ann Arbor crop from KDTX Reflectivity Tilt 2, 1:20pm June 24 2013

The SPC puts us at 10%-30% probability of thunderstorms until midnight; and only a 5% probability of damaging wind or large hail.

Chance of thunderstorms this afternoon; no severe weather expected (June 21)

We have a chance of thunderstorms scattered across the area later this afternoon into tonight. These will be typical summer thunderstorms and are not expected to be severe.

The relevant part of today’s hazardous weather outlook:

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB
REGION. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...WITH STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM WEST TO EAST AT 20 MPH.

Air Quality Alert today

The Michigan DEQ has declared today an action day for elevated levels of ozone.

People should try to avoid activities which lead to ozone production, and those with respiratory issues should limit prolonged outdoor exertion.

Details follow, from NWS Detroit:

MIZ063-069-070-075-076-083-220115-
ST. CLAIR-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT HURON...PONTIAC...WARREN...
ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...MONROE
203 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

...AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR FRIDAY JUNE 21ST...

THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY HAS
DECLARED FRIDAY...JUNE 21ST...TO BE AN ACTION DAY FOR
ELEVATED LEVELS OF OZONE. POLLUTANTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS RANGE.

THE ACTION DAY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING MICHIGAN COUNTIES...

MACOMB...MONROE...OAKLAND...ST CLAIR...WASHTENAW...AND WAYNE
COUNTIES.

PEOPLE AND BUSINESSES ARE URGED TO AVOID ACTIVITIES WHICH LEAD
TO OZONE FORMATION. THESE ACTIVITIES INCLUDE...REFUELING VEHICLES
OR TOPPING OFF WHEN REFUELING...USING GASOLINE POWERED LAWN
EQUIPMENT...AND USING CHARCOAL LIGHTER FLUID. POSITIVE ACTIVITIES
INCLUDE...CAR POOLING...DELAYING OR COMBINING ERRANDS...AND USING
WATER BASED PAINTS.

IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT ACTIVE CHILDREN AND ADULTS...AND PERSONS
WITH RESPIRATORY DISEASES SUCH AS ASTHMA...LIMIT PROLONGED
OUTDOOR EXERTION.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF
ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT...
HTTP://WWW.DEQMIAIR.ORG

$$

BT

Chance of strong/severe storms later today/tonight

We have a chance of isolated strong, possibly severe, storms this afternoon through midnight, with an associated slight risk of damaging wind or large hail. Little-to-no tornado risk.

These storms could develop as a cold front moves slowly through SE Michigan from north to south. Any storms that do develop will probably be powerful.

I wouldn’t worry just yet, but as it gets even hotter this afternoon and the front moves through the area some storms will develop across the area. It’s impossible to predict to what extent any will affect Ann Arbor specifically.

NWS Detroit hazardous weather outlook:

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER. STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

Washtenaw County Emergency Operations Center:

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH 60 MPH WINDS AND ONE INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 2 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

Storm update: diminished severe potential

NEXRAD Composite via Weather Underground June 14, 2013 1:36am EDT
NEXRAD Composite via Weather Underground June 14, 2013 1:36am EDT

As predicted, a severe storm system developed west of us and moved west-southwest, with the nearest severe weather to Ann Arbor passing just south of the Michigan-Ohio border (associated with the bowing squall line in the radar image above).

Ann Arbor can expect heavy rain with thunderstorms over the next several hours, diminishing later in the morning as this system moves out of the area. These storms are not generally expected to be severe, though they will bring downpours.

The severe thunderstorm watch for our area has been cancelled (Watch County Notification [WCN] below). With the watch cancelled, we are at a slight risk of severe weather – the most severe risk is around central IN and west/central OH. The most relevant convective and thunderstorm outlook products available at this time of night show us at little risk of strong thunderstorms or other severe weather as day breaks on Thursday.

Additional reading: SPC MD 1054.

WWUS63 KDTX 130444
WCNDTX

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 300
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1244 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

MIC091-115-161-163-130545-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SV.A.0300.000000T0000Z-130613T0600Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 300 FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MICHIGAN THIS CANCELS 4 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN

LENAWEE               MONROE                WASHTENAW
WAYNE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANN ARBOR...CANTON...CLINTON...
DEARBORN...LAMBERTVILLE...LINCOLN PARK...LIVONIA...MONROE...
REDFORD...TAYLOR...TEMPERANCE AND WESTLAND.

$$

LCZ423-LEZ444-130545-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SV.A.0300.000000T0000Z-130613T0600Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 300 FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

THIS CANCELS THE FOLLOWING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

DETROIT RIVER
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI

$$

KURIMSKI

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GROUPJUL132013 WASHTENAWMI