Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon/evening; little severe potential (July 17)

Very hot, humid air over southern lower MI is likely to contribute to some isolated thunderstorm development across the area this afternoon into the night. These storms will have the potential for very heavy rainfall, and they will move slowly (15-20mph southeast), which could cause localized flooding. Storms are not expected to be severe; they are expected to carry very little hail or damaging wind risk, and virtually no tornado potential.

Also keep in mind the heat advisory in effect today: drink plenty of water, do not leave children or pets in cars, and stay indoors as much as is possible. (Heat advisory text from NWS Detroit)

It is impossible to predict specifically whether any storms will hit Ann Arbor. As those at the Townie Street Party saw Monday night,  it’s possible for the skies around downtown to look very ominous with isolated thunderstorms, but for us to receive only a few drops of rain, especially with storms which are nearly stationary. Storms this afternoon will be similarly very localized.

Looking forward, we can expect basically the same weather Thursday; and stronger severe storms are possible Friday and Friday night as a cold front comes south into the area, bringing slightly cooler temperatures for us, though Saturday will still be warm and storms are still possible Saturday.

Here’s today’s hazardous weather outlook:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
408 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-180900-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
408 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES DURING THE DAY AND ONLY FALL
INTO THE 70S TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AS WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY. THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND WARM AND MUGGY NIGHTS WILL INCREASE
STRESS ON THE BODY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AND SOUTH OF I-94 ON SATURDAY.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

$$

And, for reference, the heat advisory text:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
329 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...

.A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED
STRETCH OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. VERY HUMID CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDICIES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES TODAY AND AROUND 100
DEGREES ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...OVERNIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
WILL BE MINIMAL AS HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST AND LOWS HOLD
PREDOMINATELY IN THE MID 70S.

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-172000-
/O.CON.KDTX.HT.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-130719T0400Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-
LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...
PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...
ADRIAN...MONROE
329 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY
NIGHT...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * HIGH HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S RESULTING
   IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDICIES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES TODAY AND
   AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.

 * LITTLE OVERNIGHT RELIEF WITH HUMIDITY PERSISTING AND LOWS
   PREDOMINATELY IN THE MID 70S.

IMPACTS...

 * HEAT EXHAUSTION OR HEAT STROKE IS POSSIBLE IN EXTREME CASES
   WHERE NO PROTECTIVE ACTION IS TAKEN.

 * MUSCLE CRAMPS AND SUN BURNS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
   EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
   HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT
   ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN
   AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK ON
   RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS. CHILDREN AND PETS SHOULD NEVER BE
   LEFT UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT
   HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

&&

$$

Heat advisory extended through midnight Thursday night

The heat advisory for our area has been extended through midnight Thursday night. Expect hot, humid conditions for the next three days, with heat indices above 100° and lows only in the 70s.

Remember:

  • Stay hydrated, especially if you’re outside for long periods of time; drink plenty of water, not pop, coffee, etc
  • Never leave children or pets in a car for any amount of time, for any reason
  • Wear sunscreen
  • Look out for symptoms of dehydration, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke
  • As much as possible, stay in air-conditioned buildings
  • As much as possible, avoid being in the sun
WWUS73 KDTX 161923
NPWDTX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
323 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...

.A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED
STRETCH OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. VERY HUMID CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDICIES AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...OVERNIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL BE
MINIMAL AS HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST AND LOWS HOLD PREDOMINATELY IN
THE MID 70S.

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-170900-
/O.EXT.KDTX.HT.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-130719T0400Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-
LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...
PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...
ADRIAN...MONROE
323 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY
NIGHT...

THE HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY
NIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * HIGH HUMIDITY AND MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S RESULTING
   IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDICIES AROUND 100 DEGREES.

 * LITTLE OVERNIGHT RELIEF WITH HUMIDITY PERSISTING AND LOWS
   PREDOMINATELY IN THE MID 70S.

IMPACTS...

 * HEAT EXHAUSTION OR HEAT STROKE IS POSSIBLE IN EXTREME CASES
   WHERE NO PROTECTIVE ACTION IS TAKEN.

 * MUSCLE CRAMPS AND SUN BURNS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
   EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
   HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT
   ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN
   AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK ON
   RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS. CHILDREN AND PETS SHOULD NEVER BE
   LEFT UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT
   HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

&&

$$

SF

Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon/evening; little severe potential (July 16)

Very hot, humid air over southern lower MI is likely to contribute to some isolated thunderstorm development across the area this afternoon into the night. These storms will have the potential for very heavy rainfall, and they will barely move (less than 10mph east-southeast), which could cause localized flooding. Storms are not expected to be severe; they are expected to carry very little hail or damaging wind risk, and virtually no tornado potential.

It is impossible to predict specifically whether any storms will hit Ann Arbor. As those at the Townie Street Party saw last night,  it’s possible for the skies around downtown to look very ominous, but for us to receive only a few drops of rain, especially with storms which are nearly stationary. Storms this afternoon will be similarly very localized.

Highly localized rainfall from a thunderstorm south of downtown Ann Arbor, July 15, 2013
Highly localized rainfall from a thunderstorm south-southwest of downtown Ann Arbor, July 15, 2013

Also keep in mind the heat advisory in effect today: drink plenty of water, do not leave children or pets in cars, and stay indoors as much as is possible. (Heat advisory text from NWS Detroit)

Looking forward, we can expect basically the same weather Wednesday and Thursday; and stronger severe storms are possible Friday and Friday night as a cold front comes south into the area, bringing slightly cooler temperatures for us, though Saturday will still be warm and storms are still possible Saturday.

Here’s today’s hazardous weather outlook:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
447 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-170900-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
447 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES DURING THE DAY AND LOWS ONLY
FALL INTO THE 70S TONIGHT.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-94. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SLOW STORM MOTION OF UNDER 10 MPH TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.
AN ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY AS WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHTS WILL INCREASE STRESS ON THE BODY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH MID-DAY SATURDAY. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL TO SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

$$

HLO

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

Heat advisory in effect Tuesday afternoon (July 16) through Wednesday night

As you may have noticed, it’s really hot outside. The NWS Detroit has issued a heat advisory effective tomorrow (Tuesday) at noon through midnight Wednesday night. A high air pressure system with high humidity will continue to cause oppressive heat throughout our area Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, with heat index values above 100℉ in some cases.

Here are some things to keep in mind, particularly with the art fair kicking off Wednesday:

  • Stay hydrated, especially if you’re outside for long periods of time; drink plenty of water, not pop, coffee, etc
  • Never leave children or pets in a car for any amount of time, for any reason
  • Wear sunscreen
  • Look out for symptoms of dehydration, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke
  • As much as possible, stay in air-conditioned buildings
  • As much as possible, avoid being in the sun
WWUS73 KDTX 151917
NPWDTX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
317 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2013

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...

.HIGH PRESSURE STACKED FROM THE SURFACE ALL THE WAY UP TO OVER 20
KFT IN THE REGION CONTINUES TO PUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S FOR THE WEEK. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THE AIRMASS HAS ABSORBED FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 FOR MANY PLACES IN SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

MIZ047-048-053-054-060>062-068>070-075-076-082-083-160330-
/O.NEW.KDTX.HT.Y.0001.130716T1600Z-130718T0400Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-LIVINGSTON-
OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...SAGINAW...CARO...
OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...
DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
317 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2013

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE BOTH TUESDAY AND
   WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

 * DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S (RH VALUES IN THE 50-60
   PERCENT RANGE).

 * HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-102 DEGREES DURING PEAK
   HEATING...ROUGHLY 2-7PM EACH DAY.

IMPACTS...

 * HEAT EXHAUSTION OR HEAT STROKE IS POSSIBLE IN EXTREME CASES
   WHERE NO PROTECTIVE ACTION IS TAKEN.

 * MUSCLE CRAMPS AND SUN BURNS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS.  CHILDREN AND PETS SHOULD NEVER BE LEFT UNATTENDED IN
VEHICLES UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT
   HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

&&

$$

MM

Severe thunderstorm watch cancelled for the area (July 10)

The severe thunderstorm watch for the area has been cancelled, and we should see few storms across the area for the rest of the evening.

WWUS63 KDTX 102030

WCNDTX

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 406
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

430 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

MIC091-099-115-125-147-161-163-102130-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SV.A.0406.000000T0000Z-130711T0000Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 406 FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MICHIGAN THIS CANCELS 7 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
LENAWEE               MACOMB                MONROE
OAKLAND               ST. CLAIR             WASHTENAW
WAYNE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANN ARBOR...CANTON...CLINTON...
DEARBORN...FERNDALE...LAMBERTVILLE...LINCOLN PARK...LIVONIA...
MARYSVILLE...MONROE...NOVI...PONTIAC...PORT HURON...REDFORD...
ROYAL OAK...SOUTHFIELD...ST. CLAIR SHORES...STERLING HEIGHTS...
TAYLOR...TEMPERANCE...TROY...WARREN...WATERFORD AND WESTLAND.

$$

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-102130-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SV.A.0406.000000T0000Z-130711T0000Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 406 FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

THIS CANCELS THE FOLLOWING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

ST. CLAIR RIVER       DETROIT RIVER         LAKE ST. CLAIR
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
$$

----
GROUPJUL132013 WASHTENAWMI

Severe t-storm watch until 8pm; thunderstorms across the area probable this afternoon (July 10)

Severe thunderstorm watch 406
Severe thunderstorm watch 406

The NWS has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 406, which includes Ann Arbor and extreme southeastern Michigan. (Washtenaw County is on the inner edge of the watch area, illustrated above as a blue line.) We will likely see thunderstorms this afternoon across southeastern MI as a cold front moves south from northern MI. Storm development will be fueled by the warm, very moist air that we’ve all been complaining about as the front moves through.

With any storms that develop in the area today, we can expect brief heavy rain, gusting winds, and small hail. Some storms in the area this afternoon will likely be severe. With the most severe storms expected this afternoon, we could see large hail, damaging winds, and heavy downpours. It is impossible to predict whether or when severe storms will hit downtown Ann Arbor specifically. Storm motion will be west to east.

The SPC puts us just inside the 15% risk areas for damaging winds and large hail; tornado threat today is minimal:

SPC day one hail outlook July 10 2013 12:30pm - July 11 8am
SPC day one hail outlook July 10 2013 12:30pm – July 11 8am
SPC day one wind outlook July 10 2013 12:30pm - July 11 8am
SPC day one wind outlook July 10 2013 12:30pm – July 11 8am

Our thunderstorm risk drops dramatically after 8pm today, when the front will have moved through.

Washtenaw County’s Emergency Operations Center:

THUNDERSTORMS WITH 50 MPH WINDS, HALF INCH HAIL AND URBAN FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 8 PM.

Severe thunderstorm watch 406 watch county notification via NWS Detroit:

WWUS63 KDTX 101631
WCNDTX

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 406
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1231 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

MIC091-099-115-125-147-161-163-110000-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SV.A.0406.130710T1631Z-130711T0000Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
406 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MICHIGAN THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN

LENAWEE               MACOMB                MONROE
OAKLAND               ST. CLAIR             WASHTENAW
WAYNE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANN ARBOR...CANTON...CLINTON...
DEARBORN...FERNDALE...LAMBERTVILLE...LINCOLN PARK...LIVONIA...
MARYSVILLE...MONROE...NOVI...PONTIAC...PORT HURON...REDFORD...
ROYAL OAK...SOUTHFIELD...ST. CLAIR SHORES...STERLING HEIGHTS...
TAYLOR...TEMPERANCE...TROY...WARREN...WATERFORD AND WESTLAND.

$$

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-110000-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SV.A.0406.130710T1631Z-130711T0000Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
406 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

ST. CLAIR RIVER       DETROIT RIVER         LAKE ST. CLAIR
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI

$$

KURIMSKI

----
GROUPJUL132013 WASHTENAWMI

And the full text of this watch from the SPC:

SEL6

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 406
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1235 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     EASTERN INDIANA
     FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY
     SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
     MUCH OF OHIO
     WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
     PARTS OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
     LAKE ERIE

   * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM
     UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
       TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
     SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
       INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST
   SOUTHWEST OF MUNCIE INDIANA TO 30 MILES EAST OF ERIE
   PENNSYLVANIA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

   &&

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND
   BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER PARTS OF LOWER MI AND IND THIS
   AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS OH AND INTO PA BY EARLY
   EVENING.  VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE WINDS
   ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 27035.

   ...HART

Here’s our severe weather outlook for today:

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH...BUT HALF INCH HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION WILL BE WEST TO EAST AT 40 MPH.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME OF THE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH GREATER CHANCES TOWARD
THE OHIO BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING TO
SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BRING AND END TO
THE STORM POTENTIAL.

Radar imagery and discussion for severe thunderstorm just south of A2 (July 10)

In these images, the bright yellow area (southern half of Washtenaw County) is the warned area.

NWS-DTX composite reflectivity; 1:18pm July 10 2013
NWS-DTX composite reflectivity crop 1:18pm July 10 2013

There is a lot (around 73 kg/m^2) of water in the center of this storm; expect heavy rain along the path of the cell:

NWS-DTX vertically integrated liquid 1:22pm July 10 2013
NWS-DTX vertically integrated liquid 1:22pm July 10 2013

This storm is pretty big; echo tops at 50-55 thousand feet:

NWS-DTX echo tops 1:22pm July 10, 2013
NWS-DTX echo tops 1:22pm July 10, 2013

In the center of the storm, expect hail and heavy rain:

NWS-DTX hydrometeor classification 2; 1:27pm July 10 2013
NWS-DTX hydrometeor classification 2; 1:27pm July 10 2013. Red = hail; dark green = heavy rain