Update on thunderstorms moving through SE MI

A line of thunderstorms currently stretching from north of Howell to Dundee is expected to continue strengthening and moving northeast at 30mph.

This line may bring 30+mph winds, small hail, and occasional lightning along with heavy rain. The rain downpour lasted about 10 minutes in Ann Arbor and was quite heavy.

NWS Detroit issued the following special weather statement.

WWUS83 KDTX 301736
SPSDTX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
136 PM EDT THU MAY 30 2013

MIZ068-069-075-076-301830-
LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
136 PM EDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 130 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF ANN ARBOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 30 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
 ANN ARBOR BY 140 PM EDT...
 DIXBORO BY 145 PM EDT...
 WHITMORE LAKE BY 150 PM EDT...
 SALEM AND SOUTH LYON BY 200 PM EDT...
 NORTHVILLE BY 210 PM EDT...
 NOVI BY 215 PM EDT...
 WEST BLOOMFIELD BY 230 PM EDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

$$

SS/MR

Increased thunderstorm risk this afternoon and evening

Looks like we have a better chance of thunderstorms today than was expected this morning. The 12:30 thunderstorm outlook puts us at a 40% chance of storms from 4-8pm, and we’re back to a 10% chance 8pm-midnight. (Outlook images below.)

Storms this afternoon and evening are still not expected to bring widespread severe weather, though isolated storms could bring damaging wind gusts and some hail. (Updated: today’s day 1 outlook effective 12:30pm through tonight puts us at a 5% risk for both hail and damaging winds along with these storms.)

There’s also a line of rapidly-developing cells headed this way shortly which should bring fairly heavy (but short-lived) rain and a little lightning (image below). These storms are not severe at this time. (Update: this line is expected to bring heavy rain for a short period of time, some lightning, and minimal risk of damaging winds or hail.)

Additionally, NWS Detroit has issued a statement regarding thunderstorm development in SW MI (extending as far east as Jackson) early this afternoon:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH 2 PM. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF A
HOLLAND TO REED CITY LINE.

MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS
BUT A FEW WILL BRING UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD-
TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
DTX Composite Reflectivity May 20, 2013 1:13pm
DTX Composite Reflectivity May 20, 2013 1:13pm

Thunderstorm outlooks:

SPC Thunderstorm Outlook May 30, 2013 4-8pm
SPC Thunderstorm Outlook May 30, 2013 4-8pm
SPC Thunderstorm Outlook May 30, 2013 8pm-midnight
SPC Thunderstorm Outlook May 30, 2013 8pm-midnight

Additional reading: today’s hazardous weather outlook from NWS Detroit (text follows).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
428 AM EDT THU MAY 30 2013

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-310830-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
428 AM EDT THU MAY 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED
STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. STORM MOTION WILL BE
TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE THE
RESULT OF A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE REGION AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
BOTH DAYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO LEAD TO A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION WITHIN THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCES FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

$$

Diminished risk of thunderstorms this evening/tonight

The SPC’s afternoon thunderstorm outlook puts us at a 10% chance of thunderstorms through 8am tomorrow. Note that this is a diminished risk from this morning’s outlook. We have a 5% chance of hail or damaging wind, but any storms which develop are not likely to be severe.

Thunderstorm Outlook May 29 2013 8pm-midnight
Thunderstorm Outlook May 29 2013 8pm-midnight
Thunderstorm Outlook May 30 2013 midnight-8am
Thunderstorm Outlook May 30 2013 midnight-8am

NWS Detroit: six confirmed tornadoes evening of May 28, 2013

The most powerful of these tornadoes were two EF2 tornadoes in Genesee county.

000
NOUS43 KDTX 291831
PNSDTX
MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-292030-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
230 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SIX CONFIRMED TORNADOES YESTERDAY EVENING...

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     TORNADO          4 W PERRY               42.81N 84.31W
05/28/2013  F0               SHIAWASSEE         MI   NWS STORM SURVEY

            THE TORNADO WAS RATED EF0 WITH MAXIMUM WINDS TO 75 MPH.
            PATH WIDTH WAS 50 YARDS...PATH LENGTH 3/4 MILE. THE
            TORNADO STARTED AT LANSING AND WARNER ROADS. IT FOLLOWED
            LANSING ROAD AND THEN CROSSED I-69. THE TORNADO ENDED AT
            THE ENTRANCE RAMP OF THE HIGHWAY REST AREA. MANY TREES
            WERE UPROOTED AND SHINGLES WERE TORN OFF A CHURCH.

0852 PM     TORNADO          MORRICE                 42.84N 84.18W
05/28/2013  F0               SHIAWASSEE         MI   NWS STORM SURVEY

            THE TORNADO WAS RATED EF0 WITH MAXIMUM WINDS TO 75 MPH.
            PATH WIDTH WAS 50 YARDS...PATH LENGTH 1/2 MILE. THE
            TORNADO STARTED AT BETHEMY CEMETARY AND MOVED
            NORTHEAST...ENDING AT W BRITTON AND HIDDEN RIDGE ROADS.
            TREES WERE UPROOTED AND MANY TREE LIMBS WERE DOWNED.

0901 PM     TORNADO          4 N FLINT               43.08N 83.70W
05/28/2013  F1               GENESEE            MI   NWS STORM SURVEY

            THE TORNADO WAS RATED AN EF1 WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF
            105 MPH. THE MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH WAS 300 YARDS WITH A
            TOTAL PATH LENGTH OF 2.3 MILES. THE TORNADO STARTED AT
            THE SOUTHERN END OF HASSELBRING PARK AND CONTINUED
            NORTHEAST TO AROUND THE INTERSECTION OF HARRY ST AND
            HUMPREY AVE. THE GREATEST DAMAGE OCCURRED ALONG SAGINAW
            ST INBETWEEN HOLTSLANDER AVE AND DOWNEY AVE. THERE WAS
            SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE AS WELL AS TO OLDER COMMERCIAL
            BUILDINGS OF SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE.

0909 PM     TORNADO          3 NW BYRON              42.86N 83.99W
05/28/2013  F1               SHIAWASSEE         MI   NWS STORM SURVEY

            THE TORNADO WAS RATED EF1 WITH MAXIMUM WINDS TO 100 MPH.
            PATH WIDTH 400 YARDS...PATH LENTH 10 MILES. TORNADO
            STARTED JUST SOUTH OF THE BRITTON AND GRAND RIVER ROADS
            INTERSECTION. THE TORNADO MOVED NORTHEAST NEAR THE CITIES
            OF BYRON AND GAINES...COMING TO AN END AT THE
            INTERSECTION OF BALDWIN AND SEYMOUR ROADS. MANY TREES
            WERE UPROOTED AND SNAPPED. 50 PERCENT OF A ROOF AND
            SIDING WERE TORN OFF A HOME. AN OLD BARN WAS DESTROYED
            AND ANOTHER WHOLE ROOF WAS TORN OFF. SEVERAL OTHER ROOFS
            WERE DAMAGED.

0930 PM     TORNADO          5 NNW FENTON            42.86N 83.75W
05/28/2013  F2               GENESEE            MI   NWS STORM SURVEY

            THE TORNADO WAS RATED EF2 WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF 115
            MPH. THE MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH WAS 500 YARDS WITH A TOTAL
            PATH LENGTH 2.8 MILES. THE TORNADO STARTED ALONG ODELL
            ROAD SOUTH OF LINDEN ROAD AND CONTINUED TO TORREY ROAD
            JUST NORTH OF RAY ROAD. THE GREATEST DAMAGE OCCURRED
            ALONG THOMPSON ROAD BETWEEN FAIRBANKS AND JENNINGS ROAD.
            THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOMES...INCLUDING REMOVAL
            OF ROOFS...AND SUBSTANTIAL TREE DAMAGE.

0954 PM     TORNADO          4 E GRAND BLANC         42.92N 83.53W
05/28/2013  F2               GENESEE            MI   NWS STORM SURVEY

            THE TORNADO WAS RATED EF2 WITH A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF
            130 MPH. THE MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH WAS 300 YARDS WITH A
            TOTAL PATH LENGTH OF 4.6 MILES. THE TORNADO STARTED NEAR
            THE INTERSECTION OF VASSAR ROAD AND POINTE NORTH DRIVE
            AND CONTINUED TO STATE ROAD NEAR PERRY ROAD. THE GREATEST
            DAMAGE OCCURED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HEGEL ROAD AND
            GALE ROAD. A HOUSE WAS NEARLY DESTROYED...A GARAGE WAS
            DESTROYED...ALONG WITH EXTERNAL STORAGE FACILITIES.

&&

$$

SF