Author: Chris Dzombak

This watch covers a large area and is a Particularly Dangerous Situation watch, meaning there is an enhanced risk of very severe and life-threatening weather in the watch area. This system has begun developing over IL and WI and will continue rapid development as it moves quickly across the area tonight.

Pay attention to local media and emergency broadcasters.

WOUS64 KWNS 122058
WOU0

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 300
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ILC031-043-053-075-091-097-197-130600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0300.130612T2100Z-130613T0600Z/

IL
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COOK                 DUPAGE              FORD
IROQUOIS             KANKAKEE            LAKE
WILL
$$

INC001-003-007-009-015-017-033-039-049-053-067-069-073-075-085-
087-089-091-099-103-111-113-127-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183-
130600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0300.130612T2100Z-130613T0600Z/

IN
.    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                ALLEN               BENTON
BLACKFORD            CARROLL             CASS
DE KALB              ELKHART             FULTON
GRANT                HOWARD              HUNTINGTON
JASPER               JAY                 KOSCIUSKO
LAGRANGE             LAKE                LA PORTE
MARSHALL             MIAMI               NEWTON
NOBLE                PORTER              PULASKI
ST. JOSEPH           STARKE              STEUBEN
WABASH               WELLS               WHITE
WHITLEY
$$

MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-059-075-077-091-115-149-159-161-163-
130600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0300.130612T2100Z-130613T0600Z/

MI
.    MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGAN              BARRY               BERRIEN
BRANCH               CALHOUN             CASS
HILLSDALE            JACKSON             KALAMAZOO
LENAWEE              MONROE              ST. JOSEPH
VAN BUREN            WASHTENAW           WAYNE
$$

OHC003-011-021-023-033-037-039-043-051-063-065-069-077-091-095-
101-107-109-123-125-137-143-147-149-159-161-171-173-175-
130600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0300.130612T2100Z-130613T0600Z/

OH
.    OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN                AUGLAIZE            CHAMPAIGN
CLARK                CRAWFORD            DARKE
DEFIANCE             ERIE                FULTON
HANCOCK              HARDIN              HENRY
HURON                LOGAN               LUCAS
MARION               MERCER              MIAMI
OTTAWA               PAULDING            PUTNAM
SANDUSKY             SENECA              SHELBY
UNION                VAN WERT            WILLIAMS
WOOD                 WYANDOT
$$

WIC021-027-039-047-059-077-079-089-101-117-131-133-130600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0300.130612T2100Z-130613T0600Z/

WI
.    WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COLUMBIA             DODGE               FOND DU LAC
GREEN LAKE           KENOSHA             MARQUETTE
MILWAUKEE            OZAUKEE             RACINE
SHEBOYGAN            WASHINGTON          WAUKESHA
$$

LCZ423-LEZ142-143-144-162-163-164-444-LMZ043-046-080-644-645-646-
673-675-740-741-742-743-744-745-777-779-844-845-876-878-
130600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0300.130612T2100Z-130613T0600Z/

CW

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

DETROIT RIVER

MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH

RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH

THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH

DETROIT RIVER LT. TO MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5NM
OFFSHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN BORDER

RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER

THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US-CANADIAN BORDER

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI

NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI

MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI

LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID-LINE OF LAKE.

PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI

NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI

WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL

LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE

LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE

WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL

WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL

NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL

CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN

GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN

BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN

LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE

LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE

ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI

SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI

LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE

LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE

$$
ATTN...WFO...LOT...GRR...MKX...IWX...DTX...CLE...ILN...IND...

----
GROUPJUL132013 WASHTENAWMI

In anticipation of the storm system coming through tonight, the NWS Detroit has issued a flash flood watch for the area:

WGUS63 KDTX 121828
FFADTX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
228 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

.A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOWER MI AND THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIE NEAR THE
MICHIGAN BORDER. A BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO LINGER ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS BAND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY THE METRO ANN ARBOR AND DETROIT AREAS.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THIS BAND OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL REACH.

MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-130800-
/O.NEW.KDTX.FF.A.0001.130613T0000Z-130613T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...
DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
228 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...
 INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...LENAWEE...LIVINGSTON...
 MACOMB...MONROE...OAKLAND...WASHTENAW AND WAYNE.

* FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
 TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
 AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

* RAPID FLOODING OF ROADS AND HIGHWAYS WILL BE
 POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE URBANIZED AREAS. FLOODING OF
 LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ALONG WITH RAPID RISES
 IN STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

* PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.
  VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

&&

$$

WWWW
----
GROUPJUL132013 WASHTENAWMI

A major severe weather outbreak will occur later with rapidly developing storms starting this afternoon. The area likely to be most affected is to our south and westward – western Ohio, much of Indiana, northern/central Illinois, eastern Iowa. Ann Arbor can expect organized thunderstorms associated with this system starting later this afternoon. Some storms will be severe, especially tonight, the later of which will probably include damaging winds and large hail, with a slight tornado risk.

• recommended additional reading: NWS Detroit briefing for June 12
• SPC’s public severe weather outlook

Later tonight, this severe system to our west is expected to develop into a fast-moving squall line with widespread damaging winds and possible embedded tornadoes. The most damaging of this weather is currently predicted to pass south of us, but tonight and early Thursday morning we will see severe weather associated with this line. These will likely be strong, fast-moving storms, with the primary risks being damaging wind (70mph) and isolated tornadoes.

Washtenaw County Emergency Operations Center: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH 70 MPH WINDS, 1 INCH HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING.

Thunderstorm risk for Ann Arbor

From 4pm-midnight, we will see some thunderstorms. Some of these will be severe, especially later this afternoon and this evening. After midnight through Thursday morning, we will see widespread storms; some will probably be severe. All these storms, especially storms tonight and early Thursday morning, bring a significant risk of damaging wind and large hail; and a smaller risk of isolated tornadoes.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1122 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

LCZ423-460-LEZ444-MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-131530-
DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
1122 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A HOWELL TO MOUNT CLEMENS LINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE
STORMS...WITH A LITTLE GREATER CHANCE ACROSS LENAWEE AND MONROE
COUNTIES. THE MOST PROBABLE TIME PERIOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
BETWEEN 5 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

DUE TO THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL OF ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG A WARM FRONT FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...MOST
LIKELY ALONG OR SOUTH OF I 94. LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 30 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM MOTION MAY INCREASE UP TO 50 MPH BY LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGER IMMEDIATELY.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

$$

Additional Information on the severe weather outbreak and SPC outlook graphics follow:

The area described above is designated in purple in the SPC’s convective outlook (below) in a  “HIGH” risk area. “HIGH” risk is rarely used, and this area will receive organized severe thunderstorms, damaging wind, large hail, and some tornadoes. Ann Arbor is just north of the “moderate” risk area; we can expect severe weather later this afternoon/tonight.

The SPC puts Ann Arbor in the 30% probability area for damaging wind:

The SPC puts Ann Arbor in the 30% risk area for large hail:

And the SPC puts Ann Arbor in the 5% probability area for tornadoes:

000
NOUS43 KDTX 121403
PNSDTX
MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-111730-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1004 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

TODAY`S NOAA WEATHER RADIO ROUTINE WEEKLY TEST HAS BEEN CANCELED DUE
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THOMPSON