Heat advisory in effect Tuesday afternoon (July 16) through Wednesday night

As you may have noticed, it’s really hot outside. The NWS Detroit has issued a heat advisory effective tomorrow (Tuesday) at noon through midnight Wednesday night. A high air pressure system with high humidity will continue to cause oppressive heat throughout our area Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, with heat index values above 100℉ in some cases.

Here are some things to keep in mind, particularly with the art fair kicking off Wednesday:

  • Stay hydrated, especially if you’re outside for long periods of time; drink plenty of water, not pop, coffee, etc
  • Never leave children or pets in a car for any amount of time, for any reason
  • Wear sunscreen
  • Look out for symptoms of dehydration, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke
  • As much as possible, stay in air-conditioned buildings
  • As much as possible, avoid being in the sun
WWUS73 KDTX 151917
NPWDTX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
317 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2013

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...

.HIGH PRESSURE STACKED FROM THE SURFACE ALL THE WAY UP TO OVER 20
KFT IN THE REGION CONTINUES TO PUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S FOR THE WEEK. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THE AIRMASS HAS ABSORBED FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 FOR MANY PLACES IN SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

MIZ047-048-053-054-060>062-068>070-075-076-082-083-160330-
/O.NEW.KDTX.HT.Y.0001.130716T1600Z-130718T0400Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-LIVINGSTON-
OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...SAGINAW...CARO...
OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...
DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
317 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2013

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE BOTH TUESDAY AND
   WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

 * DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S (RH VALUES IN THE 50-60
   PERCENT RANGE).

 * HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-102 DEGREES DURING PEAK
   HEATING...ROUGHLY 2-7PM EACH DAY.

IMPACTS...

 * HEAT EXHAUSTION OR HEAT STROKE IS POSSIBLE IN EXTREME CASES
   WHERE NO PROTECTIVE ACTION IS TAKEN.

 * MUSCLE CRAMPS AND SUN BURNS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS.  CHILDREN AND PETS SHOULD NEVER BE LEFT UNATTENDED IN
VEHICLES UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT
   HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

&&

$$

MM

Severe thunderstorm watch cancelled for the area (July 10)

The severe thunderstorm watch for the area has been cancelled, and we should see few storms across the area for the rest of the evening.

WWUS63 KDTX 102030

WCNDTX

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 406
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

430 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

MIC091-099-115-125-147-161-163-102130-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SV.A.0406.000000T0000Z-130711T0000Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 406 FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MICHIGAN THIS CANCELS 7 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
LENAWEE               MACOMB                MONROE
OAKLAND               ST. CLAIR             WASHTENAW
WAYNE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANN ARBOR...CANTON...CLINTON...
DEARBORN...FERNDALE...LAMBERTVILLE...LINCOLN PARK...LIVONIA...
MARYSVILLE...MONROE...NOVI...PONTIAC...PORT HURON...REDFORD...
ROYAL OAK...SOUTHFIELD...ST. CLAIR SHORES...STERLING HEIGHTS...
TAYLOR...TEMPERANCE...TROY...WARREN...WATERFORD AND WESTLAND.

$$

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-102130-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SV.A.0406.000000T0000Z-130711T0000Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 406 FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

THIS CANCELS THE FOLLOWING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

ST. CLAIR RIVER       DETROIT RIVER         LAKE ST. CLAIR
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
$$

----
GROUPJUL132013 WASHTENAWMI

Severe t-storm watch until 8pm; thunderstorms across the area probable this afternoon (July 10)

Severe thunderstorm watch 406
Severe thunderstorm watch 406

The NWS has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 406, which includes Ann Arbor and extreme southeastern Michigan. (Washtenaw County is on the inner edge of the watch area, illustrated above as a blue line.) We will likely see thunderstorms this afternoon across southeastern MI as a cold front moves south from northern MI. Storm development will be fueled by the warm, very moist air that we’ve all been complaining about as the front moves through.

With any storms that develop in the area today, we can expect brief heavy rain, gusting winds, and small hail. Some storms in the area this afternoon will likely be severe. With the most severe storms expected this afternoon, we could see large hail, damaging winds, and heavy downpours. It is impossible to predict whether or when severe storms will hit downtown Ann Arbor specifically. Storm motion will be west to east.

The SPC puts us just inside the 15% risk areas for damaging winds and large hail; tornado threat today is minimal:

SPC day one hail outlook July 10 2013 12:30pm - July 11 8am
SPC day one hail outlook July 10 2013 12:30pm – July 11 8am
SPC day one wind outlook July 10 2013 12:30pm - July 11 8am
SPC day one wind outlook July 10 2013 12:30pm – July 11 8am

Our thunderstorm risk drops dramatically after 8pm today, when the front will have moved through.

Washtenaw County’s Emergency Operations Center:

THUNDERSTORMS WITH 50 MPH WINDS, HALF INCH HAIL AND URBAN FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 8 PM.

Severe thunderstorm watch 406 watch county notification via NWS Detroit:

WWUS63 KDTX 101631
WCNDTX

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 406
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1231 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

MIC091-099-115-125-147-161-163-110000-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SV.A.0406.130710T1631Z-130711T0000Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
406 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MICHIGAN THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN

LENAWEE               MACOMB                MONROE
OAKLAND               ST. CLAIR             WASHTENAW
WAYNE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANN ARBOR...CANTON...CLINTON...
DEARBORN...FERNDALE...LAMBERTVILLE...LINCOLN PARK...LIVONIA...
MARYSVILLE...MONROE...NOVI...PONTIAC...PORT HURON...REDFORD...
ROYAL OAK...SOUTHFIELD...ST. CLAIR SHORES...STERLING HEIGHTS...
TAYLOR...TEMPERANCE...TROY...WARREN...WATERFORD AND WESTLAND.

$$

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-110000-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SV.A.0406.130710T1631Z-130711T0000Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
406 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

ST. CLAIR RIVER       DETROIT RIVER         LAKE ST. CLAIR
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI

$$

KURIMSKI

----
GROUPJUL132013 WASHTENAWMI

And the full text of this watch from the SPC:

SEL6

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 406
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1235 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     EASTERN INDIANA
     FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY
     SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
     MUCH OF OHIO
     WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
     PARTS OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
     LAKE ERIE

   * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM
     UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
       TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
     SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
       INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST
   SOUTHWEST OF MUNCIE INDIANA TO 30 MILES EAST OF ERIE
   PENNSYLVANIA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

   &&

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND
   BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER PARTS OF LOWER MI AND IND THIS
   AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS OH AND INTO PA BY EARLY
   EVENING.  VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE WINDS
   ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 27035.

   ...HART

Here’s our severe weather outlook for today:

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH...BUT HALF INCH HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION WILL BE WEST TO EAST AT 40 MPH.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME OF THE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH GREATER CHANCES TOWARD
THE OHIO BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING TO
SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BRING AND END TO
THE STORM POTENTIAL.

Radar imagery and discussion for severe thunderstorm just south of A2 (July 10)

In these images, the bright yellow area (southern half of Washtenaw County) is the warned area.

NWS-DTX composite reflectivity; 1:18pm July 10 2013
NWS-DTX composite reflectivity crop 1:18pm July 10 2013

There is a lot (around 73 kg/m^2) of water in the center of this storm; expect heavy rain along the path of the cell:

NWS-DTX vertically integrated liquid 1:22pm July 10 2013
NWS-DTX vertically integrated liquid 1:22pm July 10 2013

This storm is pretty big; echo tops at 50-55 thousand feet:

NWS-DTX echo tops 1:22pm July 10, 2013
NWS-DTX echo tops 1:22pm July 10, 2013

In the center of the storm, expect hail and heavy rain:

NWS-DTX hydrometeor classification 2; 1:27pm July 10 2013
NWS-DTX hydrometeor classification 2; 1:27pm July 10 2013. Red = hail; dark green = heavy rain

Severe thunderstorm warning for southern Washtenaw County (including southern Ann Arbor) until 2:15pm

The NWS Detroit has issued a severe thunderstorm warning for the southern half of Washtenaw County until 2:15pm. This storm brings 1.25-inch (large!) hail and 60mph wind gusts and heavy rain. The worst of this storm will pass just south of Ann Arbor, around and south of Saline.

Full warning text follows

999
WUUS53 KDTX 101714
SVRDTX
MIC161-101815-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0060.130710T1714Z-130710T1815Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
114 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN WASHTENAW COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT

* AT 109 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  MANCHESTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
           ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BRIDGEWATER AROUND 125 PM EDT.
  SALINE AROUND 145 PM EDT.
  PITTSFIELD TOWNSHIP AROUND 155 PM EDT.
  MILAN AROUND 200 PM EDT.
  WHITTAKER AND WILLIS AROUND 215 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  WILLIS...             YPSILANTI...          SALINE...
  MILAN...              MANCHESTER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4221 8413 4228 8354 4209 8355 4209 8371
      4208 8372 4208 8376 4208 8397 4207 8414
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 274DEG 17KT 4212 8397

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$