Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS) National Test of the Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) and Emergency Alert System (EAS)

The National EAS and WEA test will be held on the backup date of October 3, 2018, beginning at 2:18 p.m. EDT.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), in coordination with the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), will conduct a nationwide test of the Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) and Emergency Alert System (EAS) on the backup date of October 3, 2018 due to ongoing response efforts to Hurricane Florence. The WEA portion of the test commences at 2:18 p.m. EDT, and the EAS portion follows at 2:20 p.m. EDT. The test will assess the operational readiness of the infrastructure for distribution of a national message and determine whether improvements are needed.

The WEA test message will be sent to cell phones that are connected to wireless providers participating in WEA. This is the fourth EAS nationwide test and the first national WEA test. Previous EAS national tests were conducted in November 2011, September 2016,  and September 2017 in collaboration with the FCC, broadcasters, and emergency management officials in recognition of FEMA’s National Preparedness Month.

Cell towers will broadcast the WEA test for approximately 30 minutes beginning at 2:18 p.m. EDT. During this time, WEA compatible cell phones that are switched on, within range of an active cell tower, and whose wireless provider participates in WEA should be capable of receiving the test message. Some cell phones will not receive the test message, and cell phones should only receive the message once. The WEA test message will have a header that reads “Presidential Alert” and text that says:

“THIS IS A TEST of the National Wireless Emergency Alert System. No action is needed.”

The WEA system is used to warn the public about dangerous weather, missing children, and other critical situations through alerts on cell phones. The national test will use the same special tone and vibration as with all WEA messages (i.e. Tornado Warning, AMBER Alert). Users cannot opt out of receiving the WEA test.

The EAS is a national public warning system that provides the President with the communications capability to address the nation during a national emergency.

The test is made available to EAS participants (i.e., radio and television broadcasters, cable systems, satellite radio and television providers, and wireline video providers) and is scheduled to last approximately one minute. The test message will be similar to regular monthly EAS test messages with which the public is familiar. The EAS message will include a reference to the WEA test:

“THIS IS A TEST of the National Emergency Alert System. This system was developed by broadcast and cable operators in voluntary cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the Federal Communications Commission, and local authorities to keep you informed in the event of an emergency. If this had been an actual emergency an official message would have followed the tone alert you heard at the start of this message. A similar wireless emergency alert test message has been sent to all cell phones nationwide. Some cell phones will receive the message; others will not. No action is required.”

The test was originally planned for September 20, 2018 but has been postponed until October 3, 2018 due to ongoing response efforts to Hurricane Florence.

Washtenaw County-operated sirens will be tested at noon on the first Saturday of every month from March through October. This means that this Saturday, March 3, at noon is the first Washtenaw County siren test of the year.

The City of Ann Arbor’s sirens are tested every second Tuesday of the month at 1:00 pm. Testing of sirens is performed from March through November. This means that this Tuesday, March 7, at 1 pm is the first City siren test of the year.

If there’s a severe weather threat on the afternoon of a test, the test will be delayed until the following month.

Aside from scheduled tests, Ann Arbor’s sirens sound in case of:

• A tornado warning anywhere in Washtenaw County.
• A severe thunderstorm warning with confirmed winds of 75 miles per hour or greater anywhere in Washtenaw County.
• A hazardous material spill that requires immediate protective action.
• Any other local emergency that requires immediate action or for other national threats such as an imminent threat alert from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security – National Terrorism Advisory System.

When you hear these sirens, you should go inside, take cover, and tune in to one of the county’s emergency broadcasters for further information:

• WEMU 89.1 FM
• WWWW 102.9 FM
• WQKL 107.1 FM (City of Ann Arbor only)
• WTKA 1050 AM (City of Ann Arbor only)
• WLBY 1290 AM (City of Ann Arbor only)

For the City of Ann Arbor, emergency alerts will also be broadcast on Community Television Network (channels 16, 17, 18 and 19), emailed to “emergency alerts” subscribers, and shared via the city’s Facebook and Twitter pages.

Today, this means that we can expect thunderstorms across the area, some of which will likely be severe. Risks for today’s storms include damaging wind gusts (with fairly high probability) and hail up to 1 inch in diameter. Locally heavy rainfall is possible.

There is a small risk of tornados occurring with any severe storms that develop this afternoon.

Some things to keep in mind:

• Now would be a good time to clear blockages from storm drains in your neighborhood, if you’re home, to prevent your streets from flooding.
• Don’t walk or drive through flooded areas. It takes just 12 inches of fast-moving floodwater to carry away a small car, while 2 feet of rushing water can carry away most vehicles.
• Stay safe from lightning.

Tune into our local emergency broadcasters for timely updates and alerts this afternoon. Finally, it might be useful to review what a severe weather watch vs. a warning means:

Tornado Watch: The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issues Public Tornado Watches to alert the public, media and emergency managers to organized thunderstorms forecast to produce three or more tornadoes or any tornado which could produce EF2 or greater damage.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch: The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issues Public Severe Thunderstorm Watches to alert the public, media and emergency managers to organized thunderstorms forecast to produce six and more hail events of 1 inch (quarter) diameter or greater, or damaging winds of 50 knots (58 mph) or greater.

Tornado Warning: … are issued when there is radar indication and/or reliable spotter reports of a tornado.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning: … are issued when there is radar indication and/or reliable spotter reports of hail of 1 inch (quarter) diameter or greater, and/or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or greater.

Washtenaw County-operated sirens will be tested at noon on the first Saturday of every month from March through October. This means that this Saturday, March 4, at noon is the first Washtenaw County siren test of the year.

The City of Ann Arbor’s sirens are tested every second Tuesday of the month at 1:00 pm. Testing of sirens is performed from March through November. This means that this Tuesday, March 7, at 1 pm is the first City siren test of the year.

If there’s a severe weather threat on the afternoon of a test, the test will be delayed until the following month.

Outside of scheduled tests, these sirens sound in case of:

• A tornado warning anywhere in Washtenaw County.
• A severe thunderstorm warning with confirmed winds of 75 miles per hour or greater anywhere in Washtenaw County.
• A hazardous material spill that requires immediate protective action.
• Any other local emergency that requires immediate action or for other national threats such as an imminent threat alert from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security – National Terrorism Advisory System.

When you hear these sirens, you should go inside, take cover, and tune in to one of the county’s emergency broadcasters for further information:

• WEMU 89.1 FM
• WWWW 102.9 FM
• WQKL 107.1 FM (City of Ann Arbor only)
• WTKA 1050 AM (City of Ann Arbor only)
• WLBY 1290 AM (City of Ann Arbor only)

For the City of Ann Arbor, emergency alerts will also be broadcast on Community Television Network (channels 16, 17, 18 and 19), emailed to “emergency alerts” subscribers, and shared via the city’s Facebook and Twitter pages.

For more information:

• Washtenaw County has siren information online here, including a coverage map.
• City of Ann Arbor has siren information online here.

On Sunday (Dec. 11) snowfall will increase throughout the day, with moderately heavy snowfall in the late afternoon and evening. By the time the storm ends Sunday night, the National Weather Service is predicting a total of 5-9 inches of accumulation.

(Anecdotally, in Ann Arbor proper I’d expect somewhere between 4-8 inches — for whatever reason our totals usually seem to be a bit below those predicted for the region.)

Roads will be slick on Sunday. Drive carefully.

Any severe storms tonight will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail. There’s a possibility of tornadoes forming, but that seems relatively unlikely at the moment.

Some storms tonight will come with locally very heavy rainfall, which may produce localized flooding (particularly in areas of town prone to this problem, like Depot Street). Remember, don’t walk through or drive into flooded areas:

A mere 6 inches of fast-moving flood water can knock over an adult. It takes just 12 inches of rushing water to carry away a small car, while 2 feet of rushing water can carry away most vehicles.

In anticipation of this storm, try to get out around your neighborhood and clear out any storm drain blockages you notice. That’ll help your area avoid flooding.

Finally, storms tonight are likely to bring plenty of lightning. Stay safe.

Tune into our local emergency broadcasters for timely updates and alerts tonight, and follow me over at @ArborWX. It might be useful to review what a severe weather watch vs. a warning means:

Tornado Watch: The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issues Public Tornado Watches to alert the public, media and emergency managers to organized thunderstorms forecast to produce three or more tornadoes or any tornado which could produce EF2 or greater damage.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch: The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issues Public Severe Thunderstorm Watches to alert the public, media and emergency managers to organized thunderstorms forecast to produce six and more hail events of 1 inch (quarter) diameter or greater, or damaging winds of 50 knots (58 mph) or greater.

Tornado Warning: … are issued when there is radar indication and/or reliable spotter reports of a tornado.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning: … are issued when there is radar indication and/or reliable spotter reports of hail of 1 inch (quarter) diameter or greater, and/or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or greater.

Washtenaw County operated sirens will be tested at noon on the first Saturday of every month from March through October. This means that this Saturday, March 5, at noon is the first Washtenaw County siren test of the year.

The City of Ann Arbor’s sirens are tested every second Tuesday of the month at 1:00 pm. Testing of sirens is performed from March through November. This means that this Tuesday, March 8, at 1 pm. is the first City siren test of the year.

If there’s a severe weather threat on the afternoon of a test, the test will be delayed until the following month.

Outside of scheduled tests, these sirens sound in case of:

• A tornado warning anywhere in Washtenaw County.
• A severe thunderstorm warning with confirmed winds of 75 miles per hour or greater anywhere in Washtenaw County.
• A hazardous material spill that requires immediate protective action.
• Any other local emergency that requires immediate action or for other national threats such as an imminent threat alert from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security – National Terrorism Advisory System.

When you hear these sirens, you should go inside, take cover, and tune in to one of the county’s emergency broadcasters for further information:

• WEMU 89.1 FM
• WWWW 102.9 FM
• WQKL 107.1 FM (City of Ann Arbor only)
• WTKA 1050 AM (City of Ann Arbor only)
• WLBY 1290 AM (City of Ann Arbor only)

For the City of Ann Arbor, emergency alerts will also be broadcast on Community Television Network (channels 16, 17, 18 and 19), emailed to “emergency alerts” subscribers, and shared via the city’s Facebook and Twitter pages.

For more information:

• Washtenaw County has siren information online here, including a coverage map.
• City of Ann Arbor has siren information online here.

A powerful line of storms (radar image below) stretches from Jackson west to northwest of Kalamazoo, and the humid air will continue to fuel storm development until 1 or 2 am.

The storm currently over Jackson is currently severe-warned and will continue toward Ann Arbor in the next 30-40 minutes. It appears to be weakening very slightly, but severe activity behind that continues to move east toward us.

It does appear that the furthest-west activity is slightly north of Ann Arbor and if it continues due east, it ought to remain mostly over Livingston County. But it is too early to say that with certainty; there’s plenty of warm, humid air to go around, and it appears that storms are forming along I69 between Coldwater and Marshall; if those continue to develop they’ll certainly hit us.

It is hard to predict with certainty whether any of these storms will be severe when they hit us. But we will see some strong storms in Ann Arbor tonight. Generally speaking, they will come with lots of lightning, some hail, and strong (possibly damaging) winds. Rain will be moderate, heavy, or locally torrential.

Storms ahead of this front have earlier produced strong low-level rotation and possible tornados, and a tornado watch remains in effect until 3am. Where the front north of M59 produced many severe cells and tornado warnings, it does appear the storms headed toward us are less happy to produce strong rotation, but of course this could change and we should remain alert until the tornado watch is cancelled.

Tune to local emergency broadcasters for reliable updates. (Follow ArborWX too, but ArborWX might fall asleep.)

This afternoon and evening, expect strong and potentially severe thunderstorms with heavy rain, damaging wind gusts (up to 60mph), and localized hail up to 1″ in diameter.

Tonight (after 8pm until early morning), expect yet stronger storms with more intense wind gusts (up to 70mph), heavy rain, and localized golf-ball-sized hail. This second wave of storms comes with a tornado risk as well; there is a relatively significant chance for tornados to form in SE Michigan. The risk is greatest north of M-59; NWS reports the risk north of M59 is from 9pm-2am and south of M59 (so, for Ann Arbor) is from 11pm-4am.

Skywarn spotter activation is likely with these storms.

As always, it is not possible to predict ahead of time exactly when a storm will strike Ann Arbor specifically; these predictions are for the larger SE Michigan region at this time.

A tornado watch has been issued for our area, effective immediately until 8pm.

This means that the storms moving into the area this afternoon will provide conditions ideal for the formation of tornados.

You should continue monitoring local media for any severe storm or tornado warnings. (Here’s a list of Washtenaw County’s emergency broadcasters.)

And you should prepare by reviewing these tornado safety tips.

As a cold front moves through southern Michigan this afternoon into the evening, we will see rain and many thunderstorms scattered across the region.

Some of these storms will be strong, and the National Weather Service has rated our area at an “enhanced” risk of severe storms for today. Image follows.

(That’s right in the middle of the scale: it goes “none”, “marginal”, “slight”, “enhanced”, “moderate”, “high”.)

Along with these storms, we can expect strong winds and localized heavy rainfall. Damaging hail is possible. There is a very small chance of tornados predicted with today’s storms.

The outlook for damaging winds today:

The thunderstorm outlook for today shows a high potential for storms from 4-8pm:

Update: these following thunderstorm outlooks became outdated while this post was being written. Finally, the thunderstorm outlooks for noon-4pm and then 4-8pm follow, indicating late afternoon is when we’re likely to see the stronger storms:

The county’s sirens are tested at noon on the first Saturday of every month from March through October. This means the first test will be at noon this Saturday, March 7.

Except for scheduled tests, the county’s sirens will be activated when:

• The National Weather Service has issued a tornado warning
• A severe thunderstorm has been detected with damaging winds in excess of 70 MPH
• A hazardous materials accident requires immediate protective action by the public
• An attack on the United States is imminent, underway or has recently occurred

If you hear sirens and you’re not sure whether it’s a scheduled text, tune into one of the county’s emergency broadcasters.

That means we’re just over two weeks from the first siren test, which will occur on March 10.

We’ve been under a winter storm warning since yesterday. That means “At least 6 inches of snow over a 12 hour period &/or significant amounts of freezing rain and gusty winds can be expected soon.” Winter storm advisories, watches, and warnings are issued by the National Weather Service in Detroit.

Washtenaw County’s Emergency Services Division will sometimes issue local travel bulletins. Snow Condition Yellow, which we’ve been in since about 5pm, means “Hazardous driving conditions are widespread with heavy snow or ice, drifting, and limited visibility. Traffic is moving at reduced speeds with major highways being maintained in fair condition, but local roads may be impassable. Motorists are urged that if they must drive, use extreme care and allow for a significant drive time.”

Basically: your local roads are going to be nearly impossible, and highways only just usable. Blowing snow and heavy ice are making driving anywhere now dangerous. Do not drive unless you absolutely must, and be extremely cautious if you do. We’re in Snow Condition Yellow until noon tomorrow.

For those curious, all this information comes straight from the county’s website. You can also learn what Snow Condition Red is there.

Now, to the forecast. As of 5pm, according to the county, we’ve seen more than 6 inches of snow, blowing snow is common, and “numerous” accidents have been reported. The NWS predicts 6 to 8 more inches before the storm ends, around sunrise on Monday; snowfall rates near 1 inch per hour are expected. Winds will persist between 20-30 miles per hour.

Please, everyone, stay safe. The roads really are in bad shape.

We’ll continue monitoring the storm here at ArborWX HQ and will post if it gets worse.

Starting tonight, we’ll see rain showers and cloudy, foggy conditions. Wednesday — Christmas Even — will be quite rainy, with a high temperature in the upper 40s or low 50s. Wednesday will also see wind start to pick up, and as we move into Wednesday night it’ll be rainy and wind gusts could reach 40-45 mph. Wednesday night it’ll be cooler; we might get some light snow overnight.

Christmas Day, we shouldn’t see much precipitation, but it’ll be breezy and cooler, with temperatures in the 30s.