WWUS83 KDTX 122351 SPSDTX SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 751 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013 MIZ075-076-082-083-130045- LENAWEE-MONROE-WASHTENAW-WAYNE- 751 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT... AT 747 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM MASON TO ANN ARBOR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 9 PM...THEN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED BY ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. $$ SC ---- GROUPJUL132013 WASHTENAWMI
Severe thunderstorm watch in effect until 11 AM Thursday
This watch covers a large area and is a Particularly Dangerous Situation watch, meaning there is an enhanced risk of very severe and life-threatening weather in the watch area. This system has begun developing over IL and WI and will continue rapid development as it moves quickly across the area tonight.
Pay attention to local media and emergency broadcasters.
WOUS64 KWNS 122058 WOU0 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 300 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 400 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ILC031-043-053-075-091-097-197-130600- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0300.130612T2100Z-130613T0600Z/ IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOK DUPAGE FORD IROQUOIS KANKAKEE LAKE WILL $$ INC001-003-007-009-015-017-033-039-049-053-067-069-073-075-085- 087-089-091-099-103-111-113-127-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183- 130600- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0300.130612T2100Z-130613T0600Z/ IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BENTON BLACKFORD CARROLL CASS DE KALB ELKHART FULTON GRANT HOWARD HUNTINGTON JASPER JAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LAKE LA PORTE MARSHALL MIAMI NEWTON NOBLE PORTER PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN WABASH WELLS WHITE WHITLEY $$ MIC005-015-021-023-025-027-059-075-077-091-115-149-159-161-163- 130600- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0300.130612T2100Z-130613T0600Z/ MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGAN BARRY BERRIEN BRANCH CALHOUN CASS HILLSDALE JACKSON KALAMAZOO LENAWEE MONROE ST. JOSEPH VAN BUREN WASHTENAW WAYNE $$ OHC003-011-021-023-033-037-039-043-051-063-065-069-077-091-095- 101-107-109-123-125-137-143-147-149-159-161-171-173-175- 130600- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0300.130612T2100Z-130613T0600Z/ OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AUGLAIZE CHAMPAIGN CLARK CRAWFORD DARKE DEFIANCE ERIE FULTON HANCOCK HARDIN HENRY HURON LOGAN LUCAS MARION MERCER MIAMI OTTAWA PAULDING PUTNAM SANDUSKY SENECA SHELBY UNION VAN WERT WILLIAMS WOOD WYANDOT $$ WIC021-027-039-047-059-077-079-089-101-117-131-133-130600- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0300.130612T2100Z-130613T0600Z/ WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA DODGE FOND DU LAC GREEN LAKE KENOSHA MARQUETTE MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE SHEBOYGAN WASHINGTON WAUKESHA $$ LCZ423-LEZ142-143-144-162-163-164-444-LMZ043-046-080-644-645-646- 673-675-740-741-742-743-744-745-777-779-844-845-876-878- 130600- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0300.130612T2100Z-130613T0600Z/ CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE DETROIT RIVER MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH DETROIT RIVER LT. TO MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5NM OFFSHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN BORDER RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN BORDER THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN BORDER MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID-LINE OF LAKE. PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE $$ ATTN...WFO...LOT...GRR...MKX...IWX...DTX...CLE...ILN...IND... ---- GROUPJUL132013 WASHTENAWMI
Flash Flood Watch in effect
In anticipation of the storm system coming through tonight, the NWS Detroit has issued a flash flood watch for the area:
WGUS63 KDTX 121828 FFADTX URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 228 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013 ...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT... .A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIE NEAR THE MICHIGAN BORDER. A BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO LINGER ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...PARTICULARLY THE METRO ANN ARBOR AND DETROIT AREAS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THIS BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REACH. MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-130800- /O.NEW.KDTX.FF.A.0001.130613T0000Z-130613T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR... DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE 228 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...LENAWEE...LIVINGSTON... MACOMB...MONROE...OAKLAND...WASHTENAW AND WAYNE. * FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING * MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. * RAPID FLOODING OF ROADS AND HIGHWAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE URBANIZED AREAS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ALONG WITH RAPID RISES IN STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 && $$ WWWW ---- GROUPJUL132013 WASHTENAWMI
Updated briefing from NWS Detroit
Thunderstorms (some severe), significant winds expected this afternoon through tonight
A major severe weather outbreak will occur later with rapidly developing storms starting this afternoon. The area likely to be most affected is to our south and westward – western Ohio, much of Indiana, northern/central Illinois, eastern Iowa. Ann Arbor can expect organized thunderstorms associated with this system starting later this afternoon. Some storms will be severe, especially tonight, the later of which will probably include damaging winds and large hail, with a slight tornado risk.
- recommended additional reading: NWS Detroit briefing for June 12
- SPC’s public severe weather outlook
Later tonight, this severe system to our west is expected to develop into a fast-moving squall line with widespread damaging winds and possible embedded tornadoes. The most damaging of this weather is currently predicted to pass south of us, but tonight and early Thursday morning we will see severe weather associated with this line. These will likely be strong, fast-moving storms, with the primary risks being damaging wind (70mph) and isolated tornadoes.
Washtenaw County Emergency Operations Center: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH 70 MPH WINDS, 1 INCH HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING.
Thunderstorm risk for Ann Arbor
From 4pm-midnight, we will see some thunderstorms. Some of these will be severe, especially later this afternoon and this evening. After midnight through Thursday morning, we will see widespread storms; some will probably be severe. All these storms, especially storms tonight and early Thursday morning, bring a significant risk of damaging wind and large hail; and a smaller risk of isolated tornadoes.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1122 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013 LCZ423-460-LEZ444-MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-131530- DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR- MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE- 1122 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A HOWELL TO MOUNT CLEMENS LINE. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS...WITH A LITTLE GREATER CHANCE ACROSS LENAWEE AND MONROE COUNTIES. THE MOST PROBABLE TIME PERIOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 5 PM AND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY...THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL OF ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A WARM FRONT FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...MOST LIKELY ALONG OR SOUTH OF I 94. LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 30 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORM MOTION MAY INCREASE UP TO 50 MPH BY LATE EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGER IMMEDIATELY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. $$
Additional Information on the severe weather outbreak and SPC outlook graphics follow:
The area described above is designated in purple in the SPC’s convective outlook (below) in a “HIGH” risk area. “HIGH” risk is rarely used, and this area will receive organized severe thunderstorms, damaging wind, large hail, and some tornadoes. Ann Arbor is just north of the “moderate” risk area; we can expect severe weather later this afternoon/tonight.
The SPC puts Ann Arbor in the 30% probability area for damaging wind:
The SPC puts Ann Arbor in the 30% risk area for large hail:
And the SPC puts Ann Arbor in the 5% probability area for tornadoes:
