ArborWX

The SPC’s afternoon thunderstorm outlook puts us at a 10% chance of thunderstorms through 8am tomorrow. Note that this is a diminished risk from this morning’s outlook. We have a 5% chance of hail or damaging wind, but any storms which develop are not likely to be severe.

The most powerful of these tornadoes were two EF2 tornadoes in Genesee county.

000
NOUS43 KDTX 291831
PNSDTX
MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-292030-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
230 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SIX CONFIRMED TORNADOES YESTERDAY EVENING...

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     TORNADO          4 W PERRY               42.81N 84.31W
05/28/2013  F0               SHIAWASSEE         MI   NWS STORM SURVEY

            THE TORNADO WAS RATED EF0 WITH MAXIMUM WINDS TO 75 MPH.
            PATH WIDTH WAS 50 YARDS...PATH LENGTH 3/4 MILE. THE
            TORNADO STARTED AT LANSING AND WARNER ROADS. IT FOLLOWED
            LANSING ROAD AND THEN CROSSED I-69. THE TORNADO ENDED AT
            THE ENTRANCE RAMP OF THE HIGHWAY REST AREA. MANY TREES
            WERE UPROOTED AND SHINGLES WERE TORN OFF A CHURCH.

0852 PM     TORNADO          MORRICE                 42.84N 84.18W
05/28/2013  F0               SHIAWASSEE         MI   NWS STORM SURVEY

            THE TORNADO WAS RATED EF0 WITH MAXIMUM WINDS TO 75 MPH.
            PATH WIDTH WAS 50 YARDS...PATH LENGTH 1/2 MILE. THE
            TORNADO STARTED AT BETHEMY CEMETARY AND MOVED
            NORTHEAST...ENDING AT W BRITTON AND HIDDEN RIDGE ROADS.
            TREES WERE UPROOTED AND MANY TREE LIMBS WERE DOWNED.

0901 PM     TORNADO          4 N FLINT               43.08N 83.70W
05/28/2013  F1               GENESEE            MI   NWS STORM SURVEY

            THE TORNADO WAS RATED AN EF1 WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF
            105 MPH. THE MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH WAS 300 YARDS WITH A
            TOTAL PATH LENGTH OF 2.3 MILES. THE TORNADO STARTED AT
            THE SOUTHERN END OF HASSELBRING PARK AND CONTINUED
            NORTHEAST TO AROUND THE INTERSECTION OF HARRY ST AND
            HUMPREY AVE. THE GREATEST DAMAGE OCCURRED ALONG SAGINAW
            ST INBETWEEN HOLTSLANDER AVE AND DOWNEY AVE. THERE WAS
            SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE AS WELL AS TO OLDER COMMERCIAL
            BUILDINGS OF SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE.

0909 PM     TORNADO          3 NW BYRON              42.86N 83.99W
05/28/2013  F1               SHIAWASSEE         MI   NWS STORM SURVEY

            THE TORNADO WAS RATED EF1 WITH MAXIMUM WINDS TO 100 MPH.
            PATH WIDTH 400 YARDS...PATH LENTH 10 MILES. TORNADO
            STARTED JUST SOUTH OF THE BRITTON AND GRAND RIVER ROADS
            INTERSECTION. THE TORNADO MOVED NORTHEAST NEAR THE CITIES
            OF BYRON AND GAINES...COMING TO AN END AT THE
            INTERSECTION OF BALDWIN AND SEYMOUR ROADS. MANY TREES
            WERE UPROOTED AND SNAPPED. 50 PERCENT OF A ROOF AND
            SIDING WERE TORN OFF A HOME. AN OLD BARN WAS DESTROYED
            AND ANOTHER WHOLE ROOF WAS TORN OFF. SEVERAL OTHER ROOFS
            WERE DAMAGED.

0930 PM     TORNADO          5 NNW FENTON            42.86N 83.75W
05/28/2013  F2               GENESEE            MI   NWS STORM SURVEY

            THE TORNADO WAS RATED EF2 WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF 115
            MPH. THE MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH WAS 500 YARDS WITH A TOTAL
            PATH LENGTH 2.8 MILES. THE TORNADO STARTED ALONG ODELL
            ROAD SOUTH OF LINDEN ROAD AND CONTINUED TO TORREY ROAD
            JUST NORTH OF RAY ROAD. THE GREATEST DAMAGE OCCURRED
            ALONG THOMPSON ROAD BETWEEN FAIRBANKS AND JENNINGS ROAD.
            THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOMES...INCLUDING REMOVAL
            OF ROOFS...AND SUBSTANTIAL TREE DAMAGE.

0954 PM     TORNADO          4 E GRAND BLANC         42.92N 83.53W
05/28/2013  F2               GENESEE            MI   NWS STORM SURVEY

            THE TORNADO WAS RATED EF2 WITH A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF
            130 MPH. THE MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH WAS 300 YARDS WITH A
            TOTAL PATH LENGTH OF 4.6 MILES. THE TORNADO STARTED NEAR
            THE INTERSECTION OF VASSAR ROAD AND POINTE NORTH DRIVE
            AND CONTINUED TO STATE ROAD NEAR PERRY ROAD. THE GREATEST
            DAMAGE OCCURED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HEGEL ROAD AND
            GALE ROAD. A HOUSE WAS NEARLY DESTROYED...A GARAGE WAS
            DESTROYED...ALONG WITH EXTERNAL STORAGE FACILITIES.

&&

$$

SF

This afternoon and evening, expect a chance of thunderstorms. Little-to-no risk for tornadoes today. Some isolated storms this afternoon and evening could produce damaging wind and hail – the SPC puts us at a 5% risk for both hail and damaging wind.

More detail: from noon-4pm we see a 10% risk of thunderstorms; briefly increasing to 40% from 4-8pm, then decreasing to 10% after 8pm. The storms from 4-8pm are probably those most likely to become severe, but that severe risk is still very slight.

NWS Detroit’s outlook for today/tonight:

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH AND HAIL TO ONE HALF INCH DIAMTER. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE
EAST AT 30 MPH. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP TODAY
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

Washtenaw County Emergency Operations Center has this to say: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH 60 MPH GUSTS, HALF INCH HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.